Region urged to respond to China - Taipei Times

Countries in the Indo-Pacific region and their partners should urgently respond to Beijing's expanding threat to global maritime trade and Taiwan's security, the London-based Royal United Services Institute said in a report published on Wednesday.

British Royal Navy retired commodore Peter Olive and researchers Philip Shetler-Jones and Caroline Tuckett coauthored the report, titled Threats to maritime trade are spreading to the Indo-Pacific.

Beijing recently conducted a four-day patrol in seas east of Taiwan, initially justified as a response to Japan and the Philippines' negotiations to delineate their exclusive economic zones in the area, the report said.

Photo: Coast Guard Administration via AFP

Chinese state media later announced that the action was the first in a series of deployments aimed at consolidating China's jurisdictional claims over the waters, it said.

The operation was not "business as usual," as Chinese ships inspected 189 international commercial vessels transiting the region, not just ships bound for Taiwan, marking a significant escalation, the report said.

The use of coast guard and paramilitary vessels is a measure designed to limit international backlash to Beijing's actions, it said.

"This latest operation suggests Beijing is increasingly willing to go much further in its efforts to reshape regional and international maritime norms," the report said.

The developments are "deeply concerning," as they provide further evidence that China is preparing for a maritime quarantine of Taiwan, which would pose an "existential threat" to the nation, it said.

The patrols also signified that the Chinese strategy to effectuate a quarantine would involve controlling an expansive swathe of the waters surrounding Taiwan, the report said.

Such an operation would have significant implications for the region and the global economy, as it would severely disrupt sea lanes along the First Island Chain, it said.

East and Southeast Asian countries and their trade partners would all feel the consequences of the interference to their supply chains, which could cost the global economy US$5 trillion, the report said, citing Bloomberg.

The effects of recent crises in the Black Sea, the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz would pale in comparison to the damage a Chinese quarantine of Taiwan would create, it said.

If successful against Taiwan, China would be tempted to employ the same tactics against other regional neighbors with which it has disputes, it said.

China's open use of coercion against global maritime trade stemmed from its seemingly successful policies to improve resilience against supply chain disruptions and a demonstrated paucity of Western naval assets for defending trade, the report said.

The permissive environment makes it more likely for the People's Republic of China (PRC) to attempt a quarantine of Taiwan and replicate the strategy elsewhere, to the detriment of the security and economy of the world, it said.

The institute recommends Western navies enhance collaborations with Indo-Pacific countries to develop an architecture of mutual protection, as well as the capability to launch joint operations and build resilience, it said.

Multilateral security arrangements should focus on alternative routes to and from Taiwan, communications between commercial shipping and navies, and developing convoy and escort tactics to protect vulnerable commercial vessels, the report said.

Western navies should also provide guidance for regional partners and allies to make increasing use of uncrewed systems and countermeasures against drones to augment their forces, it said.

"With the PRC starting to experiment with coercive operations targeting regional trade while enhancing its resilience to withstand any fallout, Indo-Pacific nations and their partners should act with urgency to prepare for this possibility," the report said.

Taipei's detailed tabletop exercises simulating a Chinese blockade of the nation are "a welcome first step," but there is much remaining to be done for the region, it added.